2020VC with Harry StebbingsAug 31, 2026· 1:05:57

ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern

Aaron Katz, co-founder and CEO of ClickHouse, tells Harry Stebbings the AI cycle is 'just getting started' — revenue growth is unprecedented, but the biggest risk is revenue durability because agentic apps have low switching costs. He accepts lower gross margins if expansion is possible, measures AI token spend by ROI, and predicts agents will have identities, budgets, and pick their own infrastructure. He argues open-weight models won't win the enterprise over trust concerns, and sees enterprises moving back on-prem. ClickHouse revenue went 0, 12, 50, 200, finishing north of 500 this year, with >200% NDR; Katz would take the under on $1B ARR by December 2027. He calls the $2B Series B with no product the priciest round; revenue concentration matters — AI customers are under 12% of revenue.

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 1:52AI Cycle
  3. 3:49Revenue Risk
  4. 6:16Token Spend
  5. 10:04Roadmap Speed
  6. 12:01Agent Customers
  7. 16:12Agent Identity
  8. 17:59Model Landscape
  9. 24:46Enterprise Trust
  10. 28:01On-Prem & Brand
  11. 36:25Fundraising & Growth
  12. 53:44Quick-Fire

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Intro0:00

Harry Stebbings0:00

We're just getting started. This seems to be accelerating at an unprecedented pace. I mean, we haven't seen revenue growth like this in our lifetime. We went 0, 12, 50, 200, and we'll finish this year north of 500.

Guest0:12

Our guest today just got front-of-shirt sponsorship for Craven Cottage and, for Fulham most importantly, welcome Aaron Katz, founder and CEO of ClickHouse, industry-leading online analytical processing database management system. Try saying that after a couple of tequilas. But they've just crossed $350M in ARR, and Aaron is incredible.

He was one of the leading execs at Elastic for years. Before that, he spent 12 years working with the one and only Benioff at Salesforce. Now he's obviously the co-founder of ClickHouse, which is worth over $15 billion.

Harry Stebbings0:47

We need to get to $1 billion of ARR as quickly as possible. I'd put the over/under at December 2027, and I would take the under. We could take the company public next year if we wanted to.

Guest0:58

Ready to go?

Harry Stebbings1:11

Aaron, dude, I've done over 1,000 shows. I've never had a setting quite like this for a show, so thank you so much for hosting at Fulham Football Club.

Aaron Katz1:19

Yeah, total joy.

Harry Stebbings1:21

Now, I want to start with just a little explainer on what is ClickHouse and what does ClickHouse become in a five-year period, just to set the scene there.

Aaron Katz1:30

Yeah, well, I was one of our more recent investors. I think you understand the thesis behind it, which is it's the world's most popular open-source database, and it satisfies a very broad array of use cases. And it's used by nearly every AI-native company: Anthropic, OpenAI, Weights & Biases.

It's known for its lightning-fast query execution and extreme resource efficiency in terms of storing vast volumes of data.

AI Cycle1:52

Harry Stebbings1:53

When we look at, bluntly, the fastest-growing AI companies, I think the single biggest question that I haveright now is, where are we in the cycle? You know, I'm really good friends with very smart people, and I get how I've seen this before.

The levels of debt that we're seeing is insane. The prices and the valuations are so exuberant. And then I also look at adoption and revenue scaling, and I have these two paradoxical data points.

Aaron Katz2:18

We're just getting started. You know, one of the few benefits of age is experience. And so I've been through a few of these before in terms of the internet and mobile and social.

Harry Stebbings2:27

How does it actually compare as a builder? Because we hear a lot of pontifications from venture investors. How does it compare for you?

Aaron Katz2:33

Those cycles, in my experience, were much more gradual. This seems to be accelerating at an unprecedented pace in terms of how quickly these agentic experiences are maturing and how quickly these companies are growing. I mean, we haven't seen revenue growth like this in our lifetime.

And so, and the demands for the on the systems of these agentic applications is unlike anything we've ever seen.

Harry Stebbings2:56

Totally agree with you there in terms of the revenue scaling. A lot of people always look to pick holes. One of the holes they often pick in the revenue scaling is the gross margin profile. Do we just see a new world of lower gross margins?

We look at, you know, companies like Fireworks. Lynn was on the show and she was like, yeah, we're at 30, 35%. We hope to be more over time. Do we just have a lower gross margin world, or do we actually scale into traditional SaaS margins over time?

Aaron Katz3:20

You know, a lot of these companies just seem to have unlimited access to capitalright now. So they, and they're growing so quickly that I think they can operate with gross margins that most public company investors would not be satisfied with.

I think as long as they can demonstrate a path to margin expansion over the course of the next few years while still growing at these unprecedented levels with very healthy balance sheets, I worry less about gross margins like we did five years ago in traditional enterprise software.

Revenue Risk3:49

Harry Stebbings3:50

What should I worry about then as an investor? As I think about navigating this new world, again, you have the best customer base that you could almost ask for. You know, I was talking about, you know, some of the fast-growing companies on our wall the other day, and you're like, well, they're both customers.

And it was just universal, the best companies were using ClickHouse. What should I be concerned about, worry about when I'm investing today looking at these names?

Aaron Katz4:12

If you were to come down to one, if you were to say, what's the single biggest risk?

Harry Stebbings4:17

Yeah.

Aaron Katz4:18

Would be durability of revenue. Because the switching costs that you and I talked about are very high for infrastructure software. The switching costs can be very low for agentic applications.

And we're seeing that with these model providers that are leapfrogging one another, what seems like every other week. And I would call into question the durability of some of the revenue for some of these AI applications.

Harry Stebbings4:48

When I look at, like, an Anthropic IPO at $2 trillion and you look at Claude Code being the kind of dominant trojan horse behind that, would that not fall into the low switching cost?

Aaron Katz4:57

I would put it in that category. Now, that's not showing up in our use of Cloud Code because our Anthropic spend is up 100 times from what it was at the beginning of the year.

Harry Stebbings5:07

Can I ask, how much do you spend on Anthropic?

Aaron Katz5:09

A significant amount. You know, we weren't doing enough at the turn of the calendar year. So I sent an email to the company and the subject was the AI awakening. And I said, I think we're moving too slowly.

And I'm not seeing the adoption of these coding applications, for example, that I would expect to see for a leading database provider like ClickHouse. And the company rallied to the call, and we've seen just this explosive growth in terms of our use of these applications.

And we're now looking at adopting more open weights models versus just the traditional frontier labs. But I think Anthropic specifically and OpenAI have the benefit of being both the model provider and the harness provider that the open weights modelsright now are behind in.

Harry Stebbings5:54

Do you think that is theright approach? Do you not think it's better to be independent because then you can actually do optimal model routing for different tasks versus being tied into one model provider because they are your harness also?

Aaron Katz6:05

Yeah, I mean, for example, some of these open weights models we'll use for code review, but we won't necessarily use to ship production code because we have concerns about the output inference.

Token Spend6:16

Harry Stebbings6:17

Totally get it. You said there about, I love this, the AI awakening. The challenge then becomes, and we had the president of Uber on the show who was much more skeptical of the ROI that it generated internally. How do you think about token budgeting cost when suddenly you're incentivizing this, hey, run free, and then the bill might come at the end of the quarter?

Aaron Katz6:39

Well, the primary measure that we care about, as you know, is revenue growth. And if we see the sustained revenue growth that we've experienced over the last three years, and we're a very efficient company, as you know, some would argue we're too efficient, then I worry less about the expense that we're incurring on coding agents, for example, because we're covering a very broad surface area and our roadmap is accelerating at a pace that we've never seen before.

And as long as we can continue to ship features that satisfy this very broad set of use cases, then I can always rein in token consumption. And the cost of tokens, as we know, is going down, not up.

And so they're becoming more efficient, not less efficient. But our revenue is growing faster than it ever has. So I'll take that trade any day of the week.

Harry Stebbings7:25

You said that you're too efficient in some people's eyes. Where should you have spent where you didn't spend, and how do you reflect on that?

Aaron Katz7:35

So we've got about 100 quarter-caring salespeople, for example. And I think you know our revenue scales significantly more than $100M. And so our average rep productivity is quite high relative to the industry average. Our competitors that we're going up against, some of these very large data warehousing companies, some of these very large observability companies have thousands of salespeople.

They wake up every morning thinking about one specific use case. Our salespeople wake up every morning thinking about 10 different use cases, and there's only 100 of them going up against an army of 2,000, 3,000 sellers for some of these very large data warehousing companies.

So I think the one thing, and if I look back over the last two years, that I wish I had done differently was increasing sales capacity.

Harry Stebbings8:19

That's so interesting. And so you should have invested more in sales teams, sales leaders earlier.

Aaron Katz8:22

Well, I really wanted the pressure for the first few years to be on product and engineering because I looked at the two most popular infrastructure software companies over the last 10 years, and I distilled that down to Datadog and Snowflake.

They were both successful, but through very different avenues. Datadog had this PLG self-service developer-led motion, so you could get started, deploy an agent, instrument your application, never talk to anybody in sales. Snowflake went heavy after the enterprise through, you know, very expensive sales and marketing.

I just thought it was going to be a lot easier to follow the Datadog playbook than the Snowflake playbook. And it proved to be the case. But at some point, you need to layer in an enterprise sales motion on top of some sort of PLG distribution.

Harry Stebbings9:04

What do you know now about layering on that enterprise sales motion that you wish you'd known before you started?

Aaron Katz9:10

You know, I spent 12 years at Salesforce, and so I was kind of a student of Marc Benioff's playbook and so many lessons learned through that experience. And this was a long time ago. I joined that company 24 years ago.

Harry Stebbings9:21

What was your biggest lesson from working with him? Like, if there was one takeaway.

Aaron Katz9:25

That you can overestimate what you can achieve in one year and underestimate what you can achieve in five. When I started, it was a three-year-old startup, and it was basically a glorified contact manager, you know, Salesforce automation. We essentially said, what you're traditionally using Act or Goldmine or using a spreadsheet, you can use Salesforce for.

But Marc had this bigger vision, and he said, we're going after Sibyl, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft. We didn't have the product set to go after those competitors. But he was such an incredible marketer that he created this perception in the industry that some of the largest companies in the world could adopt this technology and that we would deliver on a roadmap that would satisfy the requirements over time.

And he did.

Roadmap Speed10:04

Harry Stebbings10:05

You said the word roadmap multiple times in different contexts there. But I do a show every week with Jason Lampkin and Aurora Driscoll. It's very successful and popular, which is fun. But Jason said last week that if you are not well into your 2027 roadmap already, you are behind.

Are you seeing dev acceleration because of AI tooling? And how do you measure actual ROI internally when attribution is really difficult?

Aaron Katz10:30

Yeah, we're shipping products faster than we ever have. We're entering new product categories two years ahead of where we thought we would.

Harry Stebbings10:37

Really?

Aaron Katz10:37

Yeah, both organically and inorganically. We've made six acquisitions over the last four years that have propelled us into new use case areas. And our organic roadmap shipping features like stateless workers, which is essentially infinite compute, we've shipped those faster than we ever thought possible.

Harry Stebbings10:54

How do you think Nick Cash, Palo Alto's a very good friend of mine, he's a very brilliant M&A machine. How do you think about the buy versus build versus distraction? What's that internal decision maker for you when you think about those six acquisitions?

Aaron Katz11:08

Yeah, if I think that our product and engineering teams can innovate in a specific area that we're not in today, then I'll let that play out organically. If I see a founder or a group of founders that are building on top of ClickHouse, that are getting into a category that I think is going to be, you know, a future component of what we build as an ultimate data platform, then I think about doing something inorganically.

And we partnered again with six different founders, actually more than that. Some of these companies have multiple founders. Our most recent one earlier this year was Langfuse.

Harry Stebbings11:43

Yeah.

Aaron Katz11:43

Out of Berlin.

Harry Stebbings11:44

Yeah.

Aaron Katz11:45

Which is three incredible founders entering agent observability. Every enterprise in the world is going to need this technology.

Harry Stebbings11:53

In terms of, like, the agentic future that we face, how does software and product decisions change when you no longer cater to humans, but you cater to agents?

Agent Customers12:01

Aaron Katz12:02

Well, even four or five years ago, software applications were designed for a specific persona that had a role within an organization, and their query patterns were very predictable. And whether or not you ran a report or you looked at a dashboard, agents don't have personas.

And so while you would traditionally use a specific application for observability or data warehousing or CRM, agents expect that they're going to traverse across all these applications, and they're not going to be constrained by access. They're not going to be constrained by latency.

And the experience is going to be defined by the slowest point in that chain. And so what's the number one requirement for agentic query patterns? Low latency. Because they're executing dozens of SQL queries simultaneously across all these different systems.

And the most important requirement is the unpredictability of those query patterns, the responsiveness, and the fact that they're much more exploratory than a traditional human, you know, report or query.

Harry Stebbings13:10

Can I ask you, when you see the explosion of agent queries in this way, you'll also see the increasing awareness from agents to be more cost-efficient. To what extent do you think you see a race to the bottom on pricing with the awareness from agents that they can't have an explosion of queries and costs being the same?

Aaron Katz13:25

Well, I don't see agents necessarily being cost-efficient. I don't see them thinking about consumption and budget like humans do.

Harry Stebbings13:34

Hey and my mother have that in common.

Aaron Katz13:36

But the volume of queries is exploding at a rate that we've never seen. And so it's requiring these systems to completely rethink, you know, their pricing models, their consumption patterns, access patterns. And not only are agents hammering these services in an unprecedented way, but they're actually now selecting the underlying infrastructure.

And so, you know, while you could go to Claude or you could go to ChatGPT and say, you know, what technology should I use for this specific use case, I'm thinking about a future where the agents actually select the infrastructure stack behind the application and positioning ClickHouse to be the default database for the next generation of applications that agents are building, not humans.

Harry Stebbings14:20

And just so I understand, when we fast forward to that three-year preference stack for agents, it's number one latency, it's number two.

Aaron Katz14:28

Efficiency.

Harry Stebbings14:29

Efficiency.

Aaron Katz14:30

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings14:30

And.

Aaron Katz14:30

I mean, Tesla, for example, is ingesting a billion events per second into ClickHouse. Like, that throughput is unprecedented. And so you need the ability to both ingest that efficiently, store it efficiently, and then be able to query that efficiently at a fraction of the cost of traditional database technologies.

There just isn't another technology in the world other than ClickHouse that can satisfy those requirements.

Harry Stebbings14:52

When you think about that agent buying process, trust and security are so important. Everyone is saying that we're at this golden age in terms of cybersecurity, and we see more and more security hacks. How do you feel about the security vulnerabilities that come with the agentic future that you are planning for in three years out?

More on the enterprise side. We obviously see it on the personal side, but more on the enterprise side.

Aaron Katz15:16

Well, I think it's going to require multiple deployment models. So you need to be able to consume services via a cloud offering through any one of the three major hyperscalers. You're going to need the ability to manage that data on-prem behind your VPC and your firewall.

So you're going to need to have the flexibility to deploy these applications as you best see fit, especially in the enterprise where you've got highly regulated industries, a lot of data privacy concerns, a lot of compliance requirements. And so as a supplier to these customers, we think about how do we support them dependent on their deployment preference.

And, you know, that's a tricky roadmap to maintain because most companies pick one of those avenues. You know, I mentioned Snowflake and Datadog. They're primarily cloud services. You know, you look at more traditional technologies that run on-prem. And so if you force your customer into a specific lane, you know, you're limiting the addressable market that you can go after.

Agent Identity16:12

Harry Stebbings16:13

When you look at the agentic future of the three to five years that you're planning, what seems insane today that you think will be quite commonplace in three to five years?

Aaron Katz16:22

We can talk about the fact that agents will need to have an identity.

Harry Stebbings16:26

Love that.

Aaron Katz16:26

That they don't have today. They'll need to have a budget. And how do you authorize an agent to.

Harry Stebbings16:31

So would you mean agents need to have an identity and a budget?

Aaron Katz16:34

You know, if you ask Anthropic how they chose to use ClickHouse, they'll tell you they asked Claude, what technology should we use for this specific observability use case? And Claude suggested ClickHouse. I'm thinking about a future where they say, hey, we need to build an application, provision the underlying stack.

So you've got a database, you've got networking, you've got compute, you've got storage, and the agent's actually making that selection process. But they need to have authorization, they need an identity, they need to have a budget,right, to be able to consume those services.

We're not there yet today. So if I were in your shoes, I'd be thinking about what companies are best positioned to give that agent everything they need to build a software application.

Harry Stebbings17:16

I'm sorry, I helped me understand. Where should I be looking then? And why is that not included in the harness? Like, why is that not in the settings and preferences of the harness and the model provider?

Aaron Katz17:24

Because most companies aren't just going to let their agents run wild and build whatever they want and consume as many resources as the agent deems fit. There's going to need to be some sort of governance and oversight with that consumption.

And we're not there yet today. There's some human that is observing that consumption. They're monitoring the agentic spend. They're putting controls in place to make sure that things don't get out of hand, that they don't access enterprise data that they shouldn't, that they don't spend a certain amount of money that they're not authorized to.

If you look out three to five years, those agents are going to be fully autonomous.

Model Landscape17:59

Harry Stebbings18:00

When we think about, I said one that I think it's very clear is also like specialized models. You know, we both know learn at fireworks. I think every company will have their own model, you know, trained on their own data.

They'll supplement their own data with, you know, additional data. But I very much see that being common. Do you see a world of millions of specialized models? Do you think you actually have your Anthropics and your OpenAIs take the large majority of enterprise and only very specific cases have specialized models?

How do you foresee that given the access point you have?

Aaron Katz18:29

I think we're going to have both. I think you're going to have specialized models for specific use cases like legal tech. If you look at Harvey, for example, I know they're, I think, leading the category in terms of specialization.

But I think the large frontier labs are still going to be the dominant providers in the space.

Harry Stebbings18:43

Can you help me out here? I'm an investor in Legora. Why is that a better approach than Legora's, who obviously have not decided to dedicate their resources to building out specialized models?

Aaron Katz18:52

They consume less ClickHouse is the short answer to the question. We're an infrastructure provider. So, like, we're picks and shovels, ClickHouse. So we're not, like, picking winners in these categories. Legora could be a bigger company than Harvey a year from now.

I can't predict the outcome of these specialized providers. I don't know their revenue scale.

Harry Stebbings19:10

What's the average customer spend on ClickHouse?

Aaron Katz19:14

It's a good question. So, you know, we define a customer once they hit a certain revenue scale. We've got a long tail of customers that consume some of our services, but once they actually are in production at scale, we count them as a production customer.

And there's a chart that you can see with our revenue growth and our customer growth. And you can see they're growing at a similar rate, but revenue is actually growing a little bit faster because our customers are growing faster than new customer acquisition, which is the most important function for a company of our size, is how many new customers can we onboard in any certain period?

Because we've seen the expansion characteristics of these services are unlike anything I've seen in my career. You know, we had over 130% net dollar retention at previous companies. We're over 200% because these use cases expand. You could be using us for data warehousing, then you use us for real-time analytics.

Again, these historically were, like, siloed applications inside of an enterprise. People are now saying, we want to put all of this in one data repository. We want to build applications against it. We want to expose it to our customers.

We want to expose it to our partners. And so we're just seeing this rapid growth. Average customer spend, I mean, we've got customers that spend tens of millions of dollars with us every year. We've got customers that spend thousands of dollars with us every month and everything in between.

So averages can be a little bit misleading. If I were to look at the midpoint, probably around $100,000.

Harry Stebbings20:39

When they are making that buying decision, which competitor do you fear the most?

Aaron Katz20:44

The one that isn't in the market yet.

Harry Stebbings20:46

Huh.

Aaron Katz20:46

Like, our competitors areright in front of me. I can see them. I know their strengths. I know their weaknesses. And what I worry about is the technology coming from the rearview mirror. I worry about the next ClickHouse. Like, people really didn't see this technology coming.

It was open source 10 years ago. That's when I first discovered it. It burst on the scene. Thousands of companies adopted it, but there was no company behind it. And so people dismissed it as just another popular open source database.

There's been a lot before it. There will be a lot more after it. So I worry about what's the company that's going to disrupt us in the same way that we're disrupting the competitors in front of us.

Harry Stebbings21:21

You mentioned, obviously, ClickHouse being an open project and, you know, the amazing early traction that you had. When we look at the percent of tokens that are now going through open models, it is increasing exponentially, almost, it seems.

And it is removing from frontier models. What percent of tokens will go through open in three years versus frontier?

Aaron Katz21:42

Well, the easy answer is 50-50. In the same way that what percentage of enterprise software today is open source versus proprietary, I think it's a pretty even distribution. Look at the big two.

Harry Stebbings21:53

That would be a controversial prediction, mate.

Aaron Katz21:55

I don't know. Look at the big two data warehousing providers, Snowflake and Databricks,right? Snowflake is primarily a closed ecosystem. Databricks is built around open source. Like, would you argue which one's going to be bigger?

Harry Stebbings22:06

Databricks.

Aaron Katz22:07

Perhaps,right? But then you add Datadog. Datadog's primarily proprietary,right? Other open source observability tools are open. Which one's going to be bigger?

Harry Stebbings22:18

Databricks.

Aaron Katz22:20

In observability, I would argue Datadog over Databricks.

Harry Stebbings22:23

I just think.

Aaron Katz22:24

Well, you never know. Three to five years is a long time.

Harry Stebbings22:27

It's a very long time.

Aaron Katz22:28

I don't underestimate Databricks. It's a great company.

Harry Stebbings22:30

You know what's shocking when you say that? It's like five years ago, ChatGPT wasn't out.

Aaron Katz22:34

Maybe.

Harry Stebbings22:35

That's the stark wow.

Aaron Katz22:37

I mean, are they going to get into infrastructure? Will they be offering databases as a service? I wouldn't dismiss Anthropic and OpenAI as core infrastructure providers.

Harry Stebbings22:45

Really?

Aaron Katz22:46

Correct. Yeah, not at all. I don't see them as competition today, but you see how they're entering new categories so quickly. Just imagine the surface area they're going to cover in three years.

Harry Stebbings22:56

And building their own chips. This would not be extraneous?

Aaron Katz22:59

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings23:00

Totally get that. But the conventional wisdom would be that you see 90% through open, 10% through frontier. You know, in the conversations that I have today, everyone basically says frontier models will be used for cancer, climate change, extremely valuable, but very few tasks, and then the rest of everything will go through open.

You don't agree with that?

Aaron Katz23:22

I don't, because I think, especially in the enterprise, they want provisions and protections that potentially open weight models, especially those that come out of China, cannot provide around indemnification, for example, and output inference. And it's going to limit the use cases that those open weight models are adopted for.

Now, again, it's very important that we distinguish between open weight models and open source software. Okay? We're in the latter category.

Harry Stebbings24:00

Can we just.

Aaron Katz24:00

My predictions on enterprise adoption around open weights models is very different.

Harry Stebbings24:05

Totally get that. For those that do not know, and I like to be not just for kind of Silicon Valley inner engineers, open weight versus open source in a minute.

Aaron Katz24:17

Let's focus on open source.

Harry Stebbings24:18

Yeah.

Aaron Katz24:19

So open source is essentially where anybody can inspect the source code. Anybody can modify it depending on the license that it's governed by. You can deploy it with no attribution to the authors of the software. You can modify it.

You can monetize it without any relationship of the people that are actually developing it. You can contribute to it. You can fork it. Now, open source licensing has evolved significantly over the last five years. That affects some of those implementations.

Enterprise Trust24:46

Harry Stebbings24:47

I'm pleased that you said that, that you don't agree with that, and that actually there will be more concern around using open weight models and potentially Chinese models. When I speak to people on the show, they actually say that the biggest enterprises today are more scared to work with frontier providers than they are open source Chinese models.

Aaron Katz25:07

Because people don't trust the statement zero data retention. It's basically you saying, just trust me. Like, I got you. You know, some people will take you at your word, many will not. And so I think a lot of companies worry about sending their source code, for example, to a frontier lab.

Harry Stebbings25:24

Do you see that?

Aaron Katz25:25

I do. I see it every day. I mean, we have that own concern internally,right? Because you worry about the output from that code generation. You worry about, you know, third-party indemnification. If you were to consume code that's being derived from another repository.

Harry Stebbings25:43

So what do you do in that case? You then go to an open model?

Aaron Katz25:46

You limit the use cases. You know, you can use it for code review, for example, but maybe not to push production code into an environment that your customers are using.

Harry Stebbings25:54

But then what do you trust? You trust an open Chinese model with the more sensitive data?

Aaron Katz26:00

It depends on the use case.

Harry Stebbings26:02

Because again, this is what someone said on the show the other day. I was like, no, you've got it wrong. Like, you must have got that confused. Because they said for all, like, kind of less sensitive things, we use, you know, Anthropic.

And then for everything more sensitive, we'll use an open source Chinese model. And I was like, you mean the other way around? And they were like, no, no, no. That's theright way around.

Aaron Katz26:19

I think when you need the legal protection that most enterprises do, you're going to want to work with one of the frontier lab providers. I think there's too much security concern around some of these open weight models.

Harry Stebbings26:37

Is it justified?

Aaron Katz26:38

Today, I think it is. If I look out a year or two from now, I think a lot of these concerns will be addressed.

Harry Stebbings26:43

You don't buy the back door to the CCP or.

Aaron Katz26:48

You know, I personally don't like to speculate that, you know, by using some of the software, you're somehow going to be engaging in some nefarious.

Harry Stebbings26:56

Chinese espionage.

Aaron Katz26:58

Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's quite fantastic to go there.

Harry Stebbings27:03

Listen, you're CEO of one of the kind of most prominent open companies in the world in terms of ClickHouse. When we look at the American open models, we significantly lag behind. If I were to say, Aaron, I want you to spearhead open American models, what would you do to encourage, incentivize us to dramatically leapfrog China now in our open ecosystem?

Aaron Katz27:28

Well, obviously, I'm a huge fan of open source and open weights models. So I don't think that any sort of government intervention is wise in terms of limiting the adoption of these technologies, the distribution of these technologies, because I do think, you know, open source and open weights models are the future.

And the future is defined, I don't know, three to five years. It's really hard to look out further than that. I personally wouldn't take your capital and say, I'm going to deploy it to develop an open weight model.

On-Prem & Brand28:01

Harry Stebbings28:02

Do you see more and more enterprises want to go back on-prem in this day and age?

Aaron Katz28:06

We do. Yeah. And even companies that I thought would never be going back on-prem are talking about going back on-prem. Like, some of the most innovative digital native companies in Silicon Valley are now thinking about moving their stack from, you know, one of the hyperscalers to an on-prem environment.

Harry Stebbings28:23

When we think about agentic workflows, a lot of what we've said, kind of agent identity, how sophisticated are traditional enterprises when you speak to the CEOs, when you sell to them what you see? And what's the chasm between what you see and what they know?

Aaron Katz28:40

Narrow.

Harry Stebbings28:41

It is.

Aaron Katz28:42

Yeah. I mean, I was at Canary Wharf yesterday meeting with some of the largest financial services companies in the world. They are leading the way in terms of their adopting new technologies in a way that I've never seen in the past.

A lot of the times, historically, the sales cycles into these big firms would be measured in years, not quarters,right? They're now adopting technologies much faster than they ever have before.

Harry Stebbings29:04

So you're seeing sales cycle compression in this day?

Aaron Katz29:07

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings29:08

Okay. Gotcha.

Aaron Katz29:09

I mean, open source aids in that because you can get started without any sort of vendor relationship. PLG products like Datadog and ClickHouse aid in the fact that you can just spin up an environment without ever talking to anybody in the sales organization.

You can have this frictionless experience to where you can evaluate, deploy, scale the product without a traditional enterprise sales process.

Harry Stebbings29:30

I think people just fundamentally misunderstand the GTM and the business behind it. What do investors get most wrong when analyzing your business?

Aaron Katz29:39

Investors often say, like, where's the moat? Like, how difficult would it be for me to simply redistribute ClickHouse? What's the risk about one of the hyperscalers offering ClickHouse as a managed service? You know, it's been done before where AWS or Google or Microsoft takes your open source and they redistribute it as a managed service.

So now you're almost like competing against your core database. That has been an issue in the past. I think if you can maintain a competitive advantage with your cloud offering or your proprietary features that are very, very difficult to replicate, then you can maintain that moat.

And I think very few open source companies get thatright.

Harry Stebbings30:21

I do want to weird transition back, but when we said about kind of agent preferences and Anthropic, using Anthropic to choose ClickHouse, does that mean, like, developer relations, developer community becomes less important? And how does the future of brand change when agents become decision makers?

Aaron Katz30:40

So I talked about you're building an application. Like, let's say you're building a dating app,right? So you can build it over the weekend. You can vibe code it,right? In theory, that agent can select the stack,right? It can select a managed Postgres service because you want to support transactions.

It can a managed ClickHouse service because you've got analytics and everything in between. You still have an enterprise buyer. You still have a huge data warehousing project at a top bank or a telco that's going to be driven by an engineer or a developer.

And there's still going to be a human that's making that architectural decision on, are they going to use ClickHouse? Are they going to use Snowflake? Are they going to use Databricks? You've got an observability workload. Are they going to use something off the shelf like Splunk or Datadog?

Or are they going to embrace open source and use something like ClickHouse? For the next decade, there will still be a human involved in that decision loop.

Harry Stebbings31:35

Totally get that. So it doesn't change the investment and commitment that you have towards brand.

Aaron Katz31:40

Not at all. Yeah. Because budgets are still controlled by people,right? And budgets correlate to technology decisions. And so a few years ago, I started doing things around awareness. Like, for example, for AWS re:Invent, Amazon's big cloud conference in Las Vegas, or Google Next, I partnered with the Chainsmokers.

And I had them perform because I said, there's not one party that everybody at re:Invent wants to go to. It's a bunch of, like, shitty restaurant buyouts and happy hours. I want one party that 60,000 software engineers are, you know, jumping over themselves to get access to.

So I partnered with Alex and Drew, and we started performing these concerts. And they started performing these concerts in support of ClickHouse. So then I thought about, how can we even drive broader awareness? And so a sports sponsorship came to light.

I'm not the first person to do this, as you know. You know a lot of other companies that are sponsoring Premier League teams.

Harry Stebbings32:34

Sure.

Aaron Katz32:34

And so we did a financing earlier this year, and then we extended it and brought in some strategic investors like yourself and David Sachs and Michael Dell and JP Morgan. We didn't need the capital. We had a billion dollars on the balance sheet.

Harry Stebbings32:48

I quite like the affiliation to those names, so thank you very much for including me in that.

Aaron Katz32:52

Yeah, yeah.

Harry Stebbings32:52

David Sachs and JP Morgan are very helpful.

Aaron Katz32:55

Happy to. So I thought, what better way to spend this new investor money than to sponsor an English Premier Football Club in London?

Harry Stebbings33:02

Why football? Why English Premier League? You can sponsor F1. You can sponsor, you know, La Gourde du Golf as well. Why football?

Aaron Katz33:09

Well, I love the sport, but let's put that to the side for a minute. I think the value of these sponsorships obviously come in two forms. The first is awareness. And as we saw last night against Chelsea, this is a game that's being televised globally.

So you've got millions of viewers that are looking at your brand, and you're getting impressions, obviously. The second, which is obviously easier to quantify, is hospitality. And we're sitting here at Craven Cottage along the Thames. I think this is arguably the best sports experience in the world, and I've been to many.

We had 20 executives last night attend an intimate Michelin-grade dinner. We had, you know, the C-level executive come from Paris, one of the largest banks in Europe, just to experience that. And those types of relationships are extremely important, especially as we move up market.

Harry Stebbings33:56

Do you think we will see the price of sports assets dramatically increase even further? Still, we had obviously Vanot Kosler buy. I always get it wrong, but I'm a Brit, so forgive me. It's not the Seagulls, it's the Seahawks.

Aaron Katz34:09

The Seahawks.

Harry Stebbings34:09

Yeah.

Aaron Katz34:09

The Seahawks.

Harry Stebbings34:10

Yeah.

Aaron Katz34:10

Which obviously I didn't love to see, considering both Kosler's an investor in ClickHouse, but he was a minority owner in the 49ers.

Harry Stebbings34:17

Why is that bad? Why didn't you want to see it?

Aaron Katz34:19

Because I'm a San Francisco 49ers lifetime faithful.

Harry Stebbings34:22

I'm from Fulham. I didn't have a clue. I thought it was the Seagulls.

Aaron Katz34:24

Well, it would be like, you know, you turning around and investing in Chelsea, for example. You wouldn't do that, obviously, as a Fulham supporter.

Harry Stebbings34:31

I obviously would not do that.

Aaron Katz34:32

Right.

Harry Stebbings34:32

No. Unless there was significant monetary gain, in which case I'd do it in a second.

Aaron Katz34:37

Well, but those are very savvy businessmen, so I'm sure it's going to be a good investment for him.

Harry Stebbings34:41

And then Josh buys the Lakers for 12 and a half, and I'm like, to the point of, like, underestimating where value accrues. Do you think we'll see $20 billion sports teams?

Aaron Katz34:51

I do. I mean, we just saw that with the Lakers. I think it was the most expensive sports transaction in history.

Harry Stebbings34:57

12 and a half.

Aaron Katz34:58

12 and a half. It was reported that the Seahawks sold for $9.6 billion.

Harry Stebbings35:02

Yeah.

Aaron Katz35:02

For example. It's obviously well-reported what the English Premier Clubs trade for. I do think that. I mean, it's an experience you simply can't replicate through technology or anything else. There's something very visceral about it. We felt it last night.

Like, to be there at the pitch, 28,000 rabid fans on their feet to launch the Premier season, Southwest London derby, Chelsea versus Fulham, 3 to 2, five goals. Like, what more could you ask for?

Harry Stebbings35:32

I totally agree. And I think also in a world of AI, you actually crave those experiences more.

Aaron Katz35:37

I agree.

Harry Stebbings35:37

That and music in particular, I think, will be two of the most kind of blossoming. Totally get you there. How do you think about, like, spend for it? Like, I'm not asking you how much you paid for it, but, like, how do you think about ROI effectiveness on, shit, we're going to commit a lot of budget to being front-of-show?

Aaron Katz35:53

Well, I can, you know, we had 20 guests last night, budget owners from some of the largest companies in the world. Half of those are customers. Half of those are prospective customers. So I can very easily measure the spend that I can gather from those, that basket of accounts over the next 12 months.

How much of that do you solely attribute to a sports sponsorship? That's very difficult to assess. We could see top-of-the-funnel metrics improve in terms of website visits, new trials. That could be a derivative of the awareness that we're driving through the sponsorship.

Kind of one of those two ways, if not both.

Fundraising & Growth36:25

Harry Stebbings36:27

I was talking to your ambassadors, and, you know, many of them said, every round, I've wanted to invest more in Aaron and ClickHouse, and he always cuts me back. What do you know now about fundraising that you wish you'd known when you started?

Aaron Katz36:40

The credit really goes to Yuri and Alexei. Like, my two co-founders are spectacular. The best engineers I've worked with in my career by a very wide margin. And so I'm happy to be the interface to the investor community and maintain these VC relationships.

But really, it comes down to how differentiated our engineering culture is. In terms of cutting back investors, I mean, as you know, when I evaluate an investor relationship, it really boils down to the value that they're going to bring, the customer introductions that they're going to make, the advocacy that they're going to help with.

Harry Stebbings37:12

How do you determine that? Everyone sells a good game. VCs, we sell cash. We get good at selling.

Aaron Katz37:17

I reference them like you would in any other relationship. So I talk to the companies that they've invested in in the past. I say, what's it like to work with Harry? What customer relationships has he made that have been valuable?

How has he helped with awareness from his social presence? Has he helped with recruiting? Has he engaged with your employees? How does he work with other investors? Do people perceive it as a positive to have men on the cap table?

And those all need to be a unanimous yes before we start working together.

Harry Stebbings37:46

Do you think he raised aggressively enough? We're seeing a new world where capital is more and more mote in a lot of cases.

Aaron Katz37:53

You know, I'm trying to build a generational company that outlives me. And I thinkright now, a lot of people look at fundraising as a very short-term exercise. And they want to have this consistent and steady step-up in valuation.

It's good for your employees. You give them liquidity through tender offers. It's good for recruiting. It minimizes dilution. It bolsters your balance sheet. It lets you forward invest. All of those things are true. But I'm thinking about a company 20 years from now, not two years from now.

So whether or not we raise at $15 billion or $25 billion, in 10 years is irrelevant,right? We need to have theright investors involved. We need to build a very durable, long-lasting, sustainable company. We need to get to $1 billion of ARR as quickly as possible.

The most important metric for the company is new customer acquisition. We add hundreds every month. Our gross retention is north of 99%. Our net dollar retention is north of 200%. The addressable market we're going after is absolutely enormous.

So I think less about valuations, perhaps, than I should.

Harry Stebbings39:02

When will we hit $1 billion in ARR?

Aaron Katz39:04

Within the next two years, if not sooner.

Harry Stebbings39:06

Give me a date. We can do a bet. We can both do a bet.

Aaron Katz39:09

Allright. I'd put the over/under at December 2027, and I would take the under.

Harry Stebbings39:18

You think you'll get there before?

Aaron Katz39:19

I do.

Harry Stebbings39:20

I'm going to go for Feb 28. I think now it's like 18 months. That's more than 18 months. Yeah, that's 18 months.

Aaron Katz39:26

I would definitely take the under on that timeframe.

Harry Stebbings39:28

Would you really?

Aaron Katz39:29

Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.

Harry Stebbings39:31

We're at 250 now?

Aaron Katz39:33

We're well north of that.

Harry Stebbings39:34

Oh, well, that's unfair. You said there are about tenders. We see them more and more for employees. And I think talent acquisition is one of the hardest things today. I actually got in a lot of trouble the other day for this.

I said, if you are trying to hire A-star talent today, you can't. OpenAI and Anthropic simply pay, and they go to the front-end model providers. Is that true, or was I being glib?

Aaron Katz39:57

I think it's true, depending on the category that you're in. I think if you're a digital-native AI startup in San Francisco, it's a very difficult employment environment because you're competing against OpenAI and Anthropic and others that are extremely well-capitalized and are putting offers that are extraordinarily aggressive into the market.

I think if you're an infrastructure provider like ClickHouse, we look for a slightly different profile. You know, we're looking for database engineers, people that have experience with distributed systems, slightly different than what the frontier labs are hiring for.

We employ people in 27 different countries, which gives us a competitive advantage. So I can hire engineers in Portugal and Germany and Singapore. You know, we've got single-digit attrition, so we've got extraordinarily high retention. We have done some structured secondaries, and we'll continue to do so over time, but not with the frequency that I think some of the younger companies are doing.

Harry Stebbings40:56

So I am controversial in many ways. One of them is because of my vocal expressions about remote work. Why am I wrong?

Aaron Katz41:06

I don't think you're missing anything. I'm of two minds, and I contradict myself constantly about this topic because I spent 12 years at Salesforce. I was in the office every single day, five, six days a week, 10, 12 hours a day.

And it was during this extremely formidable time in my career. I learned so much from those experiences, being in the office amongst my colleagues and peers, learning from people with more experience than I do, than I had at the time.

When I started this company, it was during COVID. And so we kind of had to be distributed by design. And I started it with some Europeans. And so people were in Europe. I was in the Bay Area. My co-founder was in Utah.

And so, you know, we started the company. We grew very quickly. We found engineers that had a very unique skill set, and they weren't all in the Bay Area. They weren't all in London. They weren't all in New York.

And so we built a distributed company. Fast forward to where we are today, we're almost 800 employees. We'll be 1,000 by the end of the year. We are introducing in-person options for our employees. We don't have this draconian return-to-work mandate or return-to-the-office mandate, but we do have offices, and we have a huge office in Amsterdam.

We have an office here in London, New York, the Bay Area.

Harry Stebbings42:18

Is that specialized around different functions?

Aaron Katz42:20

Not at all.

Harry Stebbings42:20

Really?

Aaron Katz42:21

Yeah. Both engineering and go-to-market. And we're seeing, you know, increased participation across the employee base and increased demand for office space. And if I look at a year from now, we're not going to have six or seven hubs.

We have an office in Singapore. We have an office in Sydney, Australia. We have an office in Tokyo. We're not going to have six or seven. We're going to have 16 to 20 offices around the world within 12 to 18 months.

Harry Stebbings42:44

If you could have your way, would you not have everyone be in office in some way?

Aaron Katz42:49

I wouldn't, and I'll explain why. We're a very international company by almost every measure. Over half of our revenue comes from outside of the US, 40% here in EMEA, 10% in Asia. Over half of our customers are outside of North America.

And so we need to support our customers in a variety of different languages, in a variety of different time zones. I mentioned we're live in 36 different regions around the world across all three hyperscalers. There's no way that you can centrally manage that from one location.

You need to have people in every single time zone. You need to have relationships with the hyperscalers in region. We go to market with AWS. We go to market with Google Cloud. We go to market with Azure. I flew to China to launch a partnership with Alibaba.

Like, you're going to have, you're going to need local language speakers to maintain those partnerships. And you can't do it from one or two or three centralized hubs.

Harry Stebbings43:41

What phase of company growth was most uncomfortable? When were you the teenager at the wedding?

Aaron Katz43:46

The most uncomfortable phase was immediately following our product launch. It was at the exact same time ChatGPT launched. And these database services are different than consumer services. They take time for companies to evaluate and adopt. It's not like you're just going to use ChatGPT overnight.

You're going to get to 100 million users in two months. So there is this six-month period, and it shows up on that bar chart of revenue growth where revenue was slow out of the gate. Now we've hit this inflection point, and revenue is surging now that we have over 4,000 customers.

But those first six months, you know, I raised $300 million at a valuation that was hard to justify because we had no revenue. We had no product.

Harry Stebbings44:27

Your product was quite chunky. I mean, at like $50 million in revenue, you would price like $6 billion.

Aaron Katz44:33

Again, it's just a point in time. Like, you don't get credit for where you are.

Harry Stebbings44:38

You're in jobs in YLPs.

Aaron Katz44:39

Right? You're paying for it.

Harry Stebbings44:40

Well, YLPs are what I do, but your DPI is not what, you know, Gilly Renanz is. I mean, it's a point in time.

Aaron Katz44:45

Right?

Harry Stebbings44:46

Yeah.

Aaron Katz44:46

But you're giving credit for the next year.

Harry Stebbings44:48

Right?

Aaron Katz44:49

And that's how venture investing works, in my experience, on the other side of the table, which is you're not getting priced for where you are at that point in time. You're getting priced for where you're going to be in 12 to 18 months.

And if you have a track record of execution and you have a track record of overachieving against your targets, then you can garner a multiple that is disconnected from the public markets.

Harry Stebbings45:09

Which round felt most expensive and which round felt most cheap?

Aaron Katz45:14

The Series B that Coatue and Altimeter jointly led at $2 billion felt expensive. We had no revenue. We had no product. We had control of an open-source database. We had no customers. We had 15 employees. So that one, I felt, like, put a pretty big target on our back.

And that's when the pressure really started to mount on building this differentiated product. And it took us a year. And those were some long days, you know, thinking about when are we going to get this product into the market?

What's the customer reception going to be? We knew there was some latent demand. I didn't anticipate there was going to be this much sustainable demand three and a half years later. So that would have been.

Harry Stebbings45:59

Well, so you don't know that the AI wave was coming in the way and speed that it has done, which has been the propulsion of all generations.

Aaron Katz46:08

This was five years ago.

Harry Stebbings46:09

Yeah.

Aaron Katz46:09

I had no idea. I knew that ClickHouse was the most resource-efficient and performant database in the world. And so I knew that it would satisfy whatever trend was going to come because in the database world, it comes down to price and performance, a lot of other attributes in terms of feature completeness, et cetera.

But that's really what it boils down to. And I knew that ClickHouse had an advantage on both.

Harry Stebbings46:30

Which one was the most cheap round?

Aaron Katz46:32

Probably the current one.

Harry Stebbings46:34

Yeah, I felt this too. And I know it's obviously a lot of money in terms of $15 billion. But when you look at what you have, the customers, the revenue, the slope, I'd much rather pay more for more than less for less.

Does that make sense?

Aaron Katz46:49

It does. Yeah.

Harry Stebbings46:50

I totally get that. Can I ask you something I struggle on? Another thing that I get chastised for is you said about the infrastructure slope on revenue or the slope on revenue being slightly slower because it's an infrastructure play.

It's very normal. I often say that triple, triple, double, double is dead. You know, the one to three to nine to continuous is dead. And we need to be 0 to 100 million in a year now.

Aaron Katz47:13

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings47:14

Am I glib and wrong, and that won't take into account infrastructure plays, or is that actually just the new world that we're in?

Aaron Katz47:22

Well, as I mentioned previously, I think the durability of revenue is the most underestimated attribute of these companies, meaning how high are the switching costs when somebody's using your product. And for any category that goes from 0 to 100 million in a year, I worry what's the competitive moat that they have to preserve that 100 million from that customer going to something else.

So ours was a bit more gradual. We went 0, 12, 50, 200, and we'll finish this year north of 500, which in the database world is faster growth than we've ever seen, including all of the competitive companies that I mentioned earlier today in terms of the first three years of revenue growth.

And it's over a very broad customer base. So we've got very little concentration risk. The basket of AI companies that's using us and nearly every AI company is built on ClickHouse from Harvey, Cyera, Decagon, Anthropic, OpenAI, et cetera, represents less than 12% of revenue.

And so even if half of that goes away, the winners are going to offset the loss from the losers.

Harry Stebbings48:28

Is concentration risk a valid investor concern? You know, you see a lot of people say, like, oh, yeah, I'm an investor in McCore. Oh, McCore's 90% of their revenue comes from frontier model providers. I'm like, so does Nvidia's seems to be working for Jensen.

Is concentration in terms of revenue a valid investor concern anymore?

Aaron Katz48:49

I think about it as an operator, as a very valid concern. If I've got one customer that or one category or one industry that accounts for more than 10% of revenue, I spend a lot of time thinking about it.

And that seems to be kind of the industry standard, that threshold, that if some dimension of your revenue base accounts for more than 10% of your revenue, you've got exposure. And I want to limit exposure,right? The goal is predictability, sustainability, durable growth.

And if I've got one category or sector or customer that can have such a negative effect if they were to leave the platform, that's a concern for me.

Harry Stebbings49:26

We said about switching costs there. And I think one big mistake often investors think is, ah, you know, once I get to a certain scale, I'm going to move off Elastic and build my own. Once I get to a certain scale, I'm going to build my own payments processor.

Shopify, still use Stripe at the scale that Shopify is at. And actually, most often, you just don't because it's not your core business. I'm intrigued how you think about that, especially given your time with Elastic and whether we do overestimate the, I'll just move at scale.

Aaron Katz49:54

Yeah. It comes down to customer value,right? You need your customers to continually see value from your service, which means you always need to be ahead of your competition in terms of the ROI and the TCO calculation that your customer is going to think about.

Harry Stebbings50:08

TCO?

Aaron Katz50:09

Total cost of ownership. So if you think about how much does it cost to run ClickHouse, how much does it cost to run a comparable service, and you want to have that advantage,right? Those are the two primary attributes that you're going to think about in terms of value creation for your customers.

Harry Stebbings50:24

Do you think it's important to have an internal enemy?

Aaron Katz50:27

I don't. I worry about creating adversity inside of a company.

Harry Stebbings50:32

Really?

Aaron Katz50:33

Well, you have so much adversity outside of your company,right? You've got to deal with competitors disparaging yourself and the company. You've got to think about how you stay ahead of the competitive landscape. You've got to think about geopolitical concerns.

And that's before you have any sort of personal strife in your life. That's just work. So why would you want to introduce that into your company? I want to make my employees' lives better.

Harry Stebbings50:54

To create more difficulty.

Aaron Katz50:56

Not hiring them that they want to beat someone. Oh, that just comes down to hiring theright people. Like, we only hire people that are insanely competitive.

Harry Stebbings51:03

Has your hiring changed in an AI world? How you determine talent, how you discover it?

Aaron Katz51:09

You know, I think we're a little bit unique. The average age of our engineering organization is in the mid to late 30s, which is a little bit different, I would imagine, than a typical venture-backed company that's only had a product for three years.

So we typically look for people that have a bit more experience. It's not to say we don't bring people into the company straight out of college, but we want to make sure that they're paired up with, you know, somebody that's been building distributed systems for a period of time.

Harry Stebbings51:38

A lot of people question the value of college today. Do you think that's justified?

Aaron Katz51:43

It's something I think a lot about. We've got two teenage daughters. And so as they think about college.

Harry Stebbings51:48

Would you tell them to go?

Aaron Katz51:50

I would, but I think it's simply around their life experience. You know, and again, I don't want to take anything away from, like, the academic output of a four-year degree.

Harry Stebbings52:01

But with the greatest of respect, you should. And I mean that, again, this is why you're popular and I'm probably controversial. Like, you should, like, the curriculum process to update them is so long that by the time it's been updated, it's already out of date.

Aaron Katz52:16

I think it depends on what you want to study.

Harry Stebbings52:17

Well, if you're studying, obviously, neuroscience, then it's relatively important.

Aaron Katz52:20

Yeah. If you want to go into medicine, I think that we're going to need doctors. You want that human interaction,right? If you're studying software engineering, I think you're going to be entering a market that's very uncertain in four years' time.

Harry Stebbings52:31

Do you think this could all get a bit creepy? You said I was still going to need doctors. Well, I'm not really so sure if I'm totally honest. Like, I use ChatGPT for most of my medical queries now, and it prevents me from seeing a lot of doctors.

Doctors are pretty unaffordable to most people. Wait times in the UK for a GP are months.

Aaron Katz52:51

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings52:52

I don't know, dude. And Dario wants to cure cancer. So I think he'll fix GP appointments, won't he?

Aaron Katz53:00

If I've got a serious medical concern or I need some very important legal advice, I want to talk to the best lawyer in the world. I want to talk to the best doctor in the world. And that's not going to change for me personally.

Now, I represent a slightly different generation than you do, so that may be different for people behind me in life. But I do think those domains are quite durable.

Harry Stebbings53:24

Do you think it could get creepy, though, with the AGI realization coming true?

Aaron Katz53:29

I don't. I think robotics would be probably more disruptive, frankly, to the medical industry. We had a family member have a procedure that was done entirely autonomously with just a doctor overseeing it but didn't actually touch an instrument.

And I think that will be the future.

Quick-Fire53:44

Harry Stebbings53:46

So listen, we're going to do a quick-fire round. So I say a short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts. Does that sound OK?

Aaron Katz53:52

Yeah, why not?

Harry Stebbings53:53

What job does not exist today that you think will be extremely common in five years?

Aaron Katz53:58

An AI finance function solely dedicated on AI consumption inside of an organization. That's all they wake up thinking about.

Harry Stebbings54:07

In terms of, like, token resource management.

Aaron Katz54:09

Correct. And then that job will be made irrelevant five years from then because AI agents will govern themselves.

Harry Stebbings54:19

Which job will never be made irrelevant? VCs like to think it's ours.

Aaron Katz54:22

Professional football players.

Harry Stebbings54:26

Dude, I'm 30. It's too late for me now.

Aaron Katz54:28

Professional athletes aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Harry Stebbings54:31

In the UK, we have a game. OK, it's called Forgive the Crassness, Shag, Marry, Kill. Shag is short-term buy. Marry is long-term buy. And kill is, you know, à la Poubelle. No, not for me. You have Meta. You have Microsoft, and you have Nvidia.

What is your shag, marry, kill on them?

Aaron Katz54:54

Which one would I shag? Which one would I marry? And which one would I kill? Meta's a customer, so I don't want to put them in the latter category.

Harry Stebbings55:00

Fine.

Aaron Katz55:01

Microsoft's one of our power users. We power the largest analytical workloads at Microsoft, so I'll probably marry Microsoft. I had the opportunity to meet Satya a couple of months ago. It was quite impressive. And we do business with both Nvidia and Cerebras and a lot of the chip manufacturers.

So I mean, I'd like to shag all three of them, but unfortunately, unfortunately, I don't think that's possible.

Harry Stebbings55:25

Do you think we'll see a much more distributed chip ecosystem in the next few years? You see Etched, and you see a lot of other providers, Cerebras being one of them.

Aaron Katz55:32

Yeah. I think a lot of the hyperscalers and frontier labs are going to be very relevant providers in the chip ecosystem.

Harry Stebbings55:38

What's one widely held belief about AI that's pretty agreed upon that you think's actually pretty wrong?

Aaron Katz55:45

A widely held belief around AI that's generally agreed upon but is wrong is that it's overblown and that we're in a hype cycle, that we're in a bubble. And I'll kind of finish it with where I started. We're just getting started.

Like, you know, I can't pick the winners and losers, but I think the winners are going to far offset the losers.

Harry Stebbings56:06

Do you worry about the levels of debt being taken out, exceeding any historical norms?

Aaron Katz56:12

I worry about the public exposure to these companies when they're publicly accessible. Right now, it's private capital. And so, you know, a lot of investors stand to lose money. A lot of investors stand to make a lot of money.

Harry Stebbings56:26

Totally worried about Nvidia represents a huge amount of 409(a)s for a lot of Americans, no?

Aaron Katz56:32

Nvidia?

Harry Stebbings56:33

Yeah.

Aaron Katz56:33

Yeah. But Nvidia is a public company.

Harry Stebbings56:35

Sure.

Aaron Katz56:35

So they've got public disclosures. And that's different than the private markets.

Harry Stebbings56:39

Sure. But if it were to take a hit, you would see mass wealth or kind of monetary impact.

Aaron Katz56:48

Well, that's the case with any sort of inflated asset. I'm not suggesting Nvidia is inflated.

Harry Stebbings56:52

No, but if you see concentration of value into a few names in this way, like, we've never had 85% of the stock market's value predicated in six companies.

Aaron Katz57:03

Yeah, but look at the value creation that's occurred over the last 10 years. Is there going to be some sort of compression? Possibly. You know, are you going to get back to the levels we were at 10 years ago?

Highly unlikely.

Harry Stebbings57:16

What's the biggest lesson from Peter Fenton?

Aaron Katz57:18

Peter's great. He's on my board. This is the second company I've worked with him at. You know, Peter's very philosophical. I compare and contrast him to Mike Volpi, who's also on my board. And Mike was an operator, worked at Cisco for a long time, ran corp dev.

I think he did over 100 acquisitions.

Harry Stebbings57:36

Yeah.

Aaron Katz57:38

Peter is a career venture capitalist, and he's helped shape and form some of the most influential and impactful companies in technology. And so he has this amazing pattern recognition to where he can, A, he's an incredible talent magnet.

He's been great for recruiting.

Harry Stebbings57:54

When you get him on a call with someone, what are you asking him to do? Determine if they're good or win them over?

Aaron Katz58:01

Well, I typically tell him whether or not he's buying or selling,right? Whether or not he's trying to convince this person to join the company or really evaluating this person critically. And that's going to influence, I think, how he approaches that conversation.

Harry Stebbings58:12

Who do you not have on your board that you would most like to have on your board?

Aaron Katz58:17

There really isn't anybody that I would put on that listright now. I'm adding somebody to the board shortly that we're going to announce. I'm really excited about. When I was starting the company, I met with a variety of different investors.

Mike and Peter were the first two that I called. I met with Martine Cassato in Andreessen, who's a friend of mine. And I would have loved to have him involved because I think he understands what we do in a very unique way technically.

Harry Stebbings58:41

Why was he not involved?

Aaron Katz58:42

He was conflicted at the time.

Harry Stebbings58:44

Ah, bugger.

Aaron Katz58:44

I know. It worked out fine.

Harry Stebbings58:46

What concerns do you stay on?

Aaron Katz58:48

You know, what I mentioned earlier today, like, the competitive landscape I can see, it's clear as day. It'sright in front of us. I know how we're going to execute against them. I worry about the technology that isn't yet in the market and that's going to emerge and how defensible our position is against that

because that's what we did. We burst onto the scene. Nobody anticipated this was going to be a company that's experienced such success and delivered such customer value. I worry about what that company is going to do that's undefined.

And so I go to the company and say, we need to constantly think about reinventing ourselves to be that disruptor so that we can basically disrupt ourselves.

Harry Stebbings59:30

If I could erase one name, Snowflake or Databricks, which one would you rather I removed?

Aaron Katz59:37

Removed from the market? Well, I think it's well documented that Databricks is executing extraordinarily well in the market. I've got a ton of respect for Ollie and the company. We're going after adjacent markets. These are database technologies, so you squint hard enough, there's going to be competitive overlap with all of them.

There's plenty of white space on either side of the Venn diagram with us and Databricks.

Harry Stebbings1:00:03

Did your CEO of a, yeah, $15 billion company on the fastest growing technology and an incredible business, you also have two incredible children, what's the biggest advice on how to be a great CEO, be in London here with me at Fulham, and also be a great dad?

Aaron Katz1:00:19

Well, I think the attributes are very similar. You know, you take your job seriously, and you commit to it, and you think about how you can improve, and you ask for advice, and you surround yourself with people that have experience doing whether it's parenting or running a company, and you replicate the best attributes of those people, and you leave the other ones behind.

Harry Stebbings1:00:39

What do you know about marriage now that you wish you'd known when you got married about what it takes to be successful?

Aaron Katz1:00:44

We've been together for 24 years.

Harry Stebbings1:00:46

Wow.

Aaron Katz1:00:47

The acceptance that it's not a straight line and the willingness to

come together with that understanding and embrace one another's differences,

celebrate the achievements of the individuals in the relationship, and realize that you have a shared purpose, especially when you have kids. And it's a very powerful shared purpose. And that's very similar to running a company. You know, you want all of your employees to be aligned with the objective.

And what is the purpose? What's the vision? How are we going to get there? How are we going to execute?

Harry Stebbings1:01:24

Final one for you. What are you most excited for when you look forward to the next three to five years? You know, you just met my mother, which is awesome. She has MS. I'm excited for potential breakthroughs in chronic conditions, which have traditionally just always been incurable.

I mean, that's unbelievable that we sit at this time. What are you most excited for?

Aaron Katz1:01:44

Well, if you'd asked me that question five years ago, I don't think anybody would have predicted where we are today,right? I mean, ChatGPT launched in November of 2022. That's less than four years ago. So looking out five years from now is nearly impossible.

Obviously, the same medical advancements is important.

I'm looking forward to a Fulham Premiership Championship, looking for a qualification to Champions League, winning the FA Cup. I'm looking for the US to advance further in the World Cup in four years when it's in Spain, in Portugal, and Morocco.

Harry Stebbings1:02:19

Where will ClickHouse be in five years' time?

Aaron Katz1:02:22

I think, you know, I'd take the under on being a public company. We could take the company public next year if we wanted to. There's no rush.

Harry Stebbings1:02:30

Why would you not?

Aaron Katz1:02:31

I think if you're looking at the world in, you know, three to five-year time horizon, that applies. Again, like, I'm hoping this company outlives me, and in which case, whether or not we go public next year or in five years is pretty irrelevant.

I mean, when Salesforce went public in 2004, it had a billion-dollar market cap.

Harry Stebbings1:02:51

What do you think you get by being private? If you're ready to go public next year, I completely agree with you.

Aaron Katz1:02:56

Well, the markets are more irrational now, I think, than they've been in a long time. And so it's pretty rough being a public company. And, like, your stock can trade down 40%, 50% on a slight miss in a quarter.

And we know that impact on employee morale. And you don't have that in the private markets.

Harry Stebbings1:03:12

It is brutal. Every CEO's like, oh, no, their head's down. It doesn't matter. It matters.

Aaron Katz1:03:16

Yeah. I've come full circle on this. Like, I remember having dinner with Ollie a few years ago, and I asked him this question. I'm like, it feels like you guys are ready to go public. And he said, I kind of basically run a public company, and he walked me through that.

And I said, well, there's really two dimensions that don't apply. You know, you don't have your employees looking at your stock price every day, and you don't have anybody shorting your company. Those are two material impacts of being a public company versus being a private company.

Now, the employee liquidity has more or less gone away because you can do structured tenders, and you can give your employees liquidity over time. The bear thesis hasn't gone away. Like, you don't have people shorting your company when you're a private company.

And so you don't have to deal with that in, you know, in your day-to-day course of work.

Harry Stebbings1:03:59

And then on top of that, a lot of people have traditionally said, well, the boat joy is being a public company as you have this kind of tradable currency that you can buy companies with, which is helpful for acquisitions.

Aaron Katz1:04:08

Yep.

Harry Stebbings1:04:09

Yeah, well, Stripe is buying PayPal for $50 to $60 billion as a private company.

Aaron Katz1:04:15

Bit of an outlier, but I get what you're saying.

Harry Stebbings1:04:17

And OpenRouter as well at $8 billion.

Aaron Katz1:04:19

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings1:04:19

God, these are two pretty sizable acquisitions that traditionally would be unthinkable for a private company. So now my question would be, why would anyone go public?

Aaron Katz1:04:27

I mean, it's a valid question. I think you want, A, it increases awareness. It's a financing event. You diversify your investor base. It's very good for employee morale. I've been through two IPOs.

Harry Stebbings1:04:40

Is it?

Aaron Katz1:04:41

Oh, it's wonderful. Yeah. Your community celebrates it. Your family celebrates it. Your friends, your colleagues from university. Like, it is a big investment.

Harry Stebbings1:04:49

I'm not a short-term thing, though, again, to the point of the tumultuous journey that comes post. You're like, great, for a week, and then at the whims of a volatile stock market.

Aaron Katz1:05:00

Yeah, but again, I believe in the public markets. I believe in the capital markets. I believe that, you know, in terms of price discovery, public markets are generally better than private markets in the long term. They behave more rationally than private investors who are willing to pay a premium to get into a company, betting on the come.

Whereas in the public markets, you're really getting credit for where you are at that point in time. Maybe there's some speculation built into your stock price, but it's more grounded in the execution and the results that you're delivering.

Harry Stebbings1:05:31

Totally get that. Listen, you've delivered incredible results. I have no doubt that you will win the bet that we have in terms of reaching the billion an hour. I look forward to wiring you£1,000 when you do. But thank you so much for hosting us at Fulham.

This is incredible.

Aaron Katz1:05:45

Yeah, it's a beautiful setting. Thanks so much for having me.