Cursor

Instinct Worth 30BN? | Microsoft Cuts 27,000 Jobs While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95B CapEx

Oct 29, 2026 · 1:00:17

Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll argue Anthropic's S-1 shows a company investors are still underestimating, with $16.3 billion first-half revenue and $110 billion of cash, though 80% of revenue comes from models under six months old. They break down Microsoft's buyout offers to 27% of its 223,000 employees, warning 2027 CapEx depreciation will force more AI-driven layoffs, and Meta raising $95 billion of equity for its spending spree. Jason argues Chinese open-weight models are finished in the US after Alibaba's Quen was caught uploading data to servers in China and Singapore. They debate Instinct at $30 billion as the 'super app of the West', whether OpenRouter's boom is a moment in time, and Jason's pitch to put 20% of the fund into OpenAI at $1.25 trillion.

Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble

Sep 7, 2026 · 1:16:01

Jean-Denis Grèze, Co-Founder and CEO of Town, joins 20VC's Harry Stebbings to argue the AI assistant market is not a bubble and that Town can survive Google, Apple and OpenAI. He explains Town's pivot from AI tax prep to an assistant living in email and calendar, arguing the winning product will have agent-level network effects. Grèze says startups are subsidizing frontier model costs today, pricing for 20–30% margins in 18 months as prices halve every 9–12 months. He predicts people will trust agents to decide what data to share within five years, calls token maxing the wrong metric, and says Apple could lose because it lacks cloud DNA and is tied to on-device privacy. He also refuses to inflate announced round valuations, calling the practice unethical toward employees.

How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It

Sep 5, 2026 · 1:04:40

Cliff Weitzman, co-founder and CEO of Speechify, tells Harry Stebbings that owning NVIDIA GPUs beats renting because renting costs 1.5x the purchase price yearly, so Speechify pays $100,000 per GPU to get Rubins and B300s early. He covers inference versus training workloads, liquid-cooling and insurance logistics, and NVIDIA's 25% buyback underwriting with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs. Weitzman admits his biggest mistake was staying B2C as ElevenLabs leapfrogged Speechify through B2B APIs, and defends entering B2B against ElevenLabs and Bret Taylor's Sierra. He also argues founders should hire math olympiads over coders, details agent orchestration with Claude Code and Cursor, and explains how GPU clusters help him sequence genomes to cure his brother's orphan disease.

NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation

Sep 3, 2026 · 1:20:29

Harry Stebbings hosts SaaS investors Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll breaking down NVIDIA's record $96.2 billion quarter, its $12.9 billion pursuit of Hugging Face, and 70% growth guidance signaling compute demand runs at least another 12 months. Lemkin defends OpenAI's cutoff of Cursor as rational, since coding is the model load for LLMs and Cursor competes directly. The panel argues every startup must now become a compound startup, as AI makes code so cheap to produce that teams ship 100 times more software. Lemkin lays out bull cases for Clay at $7 billion and Linear at $2.5 billion, claiming agents will consume 10 to 100 times more GTM resources than humans ever could. They also flag the Hugging Face agent hack as a wake-up call for CISOs and praise Benioff's pragmatism in embracing multi-surface access and outcome-based pricing at Salesforce.

Only 10% of Neo-labs Will Survive | Factory CTO, Eno Reyes

Aug 29, 2026 · 1:29:23

Eno Reyes, Factory CTO, says the cheapest AI model isn't the cheapest system: outcome-based pricing can make frontier models cheaper, and predicts 99% of workflows will run on open models in three years but the remaining 1% holds most economic value. He calls 'Chinese models' a psyop by frontier labs, says frontier valuations are overweighted, sees Anthropic's $2 trillion Claude Code bet as risky due to model lock-in, and credits Microsoft with the best AI hand. Reyes says model routing is commoditized, warns 80-90% of neo labs could die in 18 months unless tied to durable workflows, and insists enterprises must own their intelligence rather than let labs control it. He rejects pedigree in hiring, wants token budgets funding outcomes, and expects SaaS to sell before cannibalization.

Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated

Aug 27, 2026 · 1:26:44

Jason Lemkin, Rory O’Driscoll and Harry Stebbings say the AI boom now depends on Nvidia and hyperscalers financing frontier models, as shown by Nvidia's $6B Poolside purchase and $1B at a $12B pre-money valuation. They dissect OpenAI's promised 2027 IPO, arguing it has no choice as Anthropic outraces it and 'it's all about code'; they call Anthropic's $30T TAM claim delusional and OpenAI's $200 plan a losing consumer business. Also covered: Mercor's $20B round, Hugging Face's $13B sale risk, Citadel unwinding 80% of Leopold's fund, Stripe's 41% growth, agents' data leaks, and why customer support, humanoid robotics and AI services are the dumbest categories. Their verdict: we're less than a third of the way through the cycle and addicted to tokens.

The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock

Aug 22, 2026 · 1:10:09

Jerry Murdock, co-founder of Insight Partners, warns the AI bubble may burst by March if the Iran war continues, citing credit market complacency and Japan’s $1 trillion Treasuries. He predicts at least half of Neo Clouds disappear within 36 months, favors Fireworks over Base10, and argues open-source models plus ASIC chips will drive customization while frontier labs retain complex tasks. On security, he calls sandboxes the most underrated layer, naming Docker and E2B as leaders, and expects OpenRouter’s 5% markup to be disrupted by inference exchanges. He adds private equity is highly at risk to any financial dislocation, and in quick-fire bets Nvidia exceeds $10 trillion in five years while picking Meta as the Mag 7 short.

Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?

Aug 20, 2026 · 1:17:47

Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll analyze SpaceX's $60B Cursor takeover, Stripe's $7B OpenRouter deal, Anthropic's first profit, Silver Lake's $43B Workday bid and Lovable's $13.3B round, arguing all reward speed and growth over margin. Musk got Cursor at ~10x forward revenue; Microsoft, not Meta, is the real loser. OpenRouter is a niche that may vanish in five years, yet could become 20-30% of Stripe revenue. Anthropic's first profit on $11.5B Q2 revenue was inevitable at ~40% gross margin; only 2027-28 projected revenue matters for its IPO. Workday is a 5.3x-revenue system-of-record LBO baseline versus 70x trailing for OpenRouter, and Higgsfield's $5.5B and Lovable's $13.3B are compared to Cursor, with Lovable 'not radically off' as AI apps accrete moats.