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The Ads Business Model Will Die & Lessons from Working with Elon at Twitter | Parag Agrawal

Sep 26, 2026 · 1:08:55

Parag Agrawal, former Twitter CEO and founder of Parallel ($230M from Sequoia, Khosla and First Round), argues agents will use the web 1,000x more than humans, requiring entirely new search technology and business models. He explains why agent search differs — inputs, outputs, latency and cost tradeoffs — claiming the same quality at 1/20th to 1/50th the compute, with Turbo for voice agents and Advanced for background agents. Because ads don't work with agents, Parallel is building an 'AdSense for agents' that pays content owners per agent use; he argues search prices must collapse from $10 to $1 per 1,000 queries, with another 10x coming. He also covers data licensing at inference time, the Monitor API shifting the web from pull to push, and the urgency he saw in Elon Musk.

Meta's Muse Hits #1 | Menlo Sounds the AI Bubble Alarm | Keith Rabois vs Airwallex: Who is Right?

Sep 24, 2026 · 1:20:44

Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll argue Meta's Muse hitting #1 is the first true ChatGPT competitor and a Trojan horse that added $100 billion to Meta's market cap, and that Anthropic's delayed $2 trillion IPO is a bet on a cleaner Q4 story, not a cracking market. They break down OpenAI's $278 billion burn and $700 billion of CapEx, argue Jev's $40 million seed shows 20% of a $100 billion LLM spend will leak to cheaper classifiers, and predict agentic commerce will maim Amazon while benefiting Shopify. They debate disappearing traditional seed rounds, FOMO-driven checks and what LPs should back today. They approve Factory at $5 billion — coding is the motherlode — pass on Crusoe at $30.9 billion, and side against Keith Rabois in his Airwallex fight, urging founders to build an army of advocates.

Frontier Labs Threatened by Kimi? Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models & Stripe Buys PayPal

Jul 23, 2026 · 1:27:39

Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin, and Rory O'Driscoll debate China's near-frontier open-weight models Kimi and Quan, arguing the US should not ban them but compete. They discuss OpenAI's 'AI Communism' tweet, the commoditized inference market leading OpenRouter to consider sale while Fireworks AI hits $1B ARR at $17.5B valuation. The panel notes the application layer has not arrived, with infrastructure spending far exceeding app revenues. They analyze the Stripe-Advent bid to take PayPal private at ~$60B, predicting a 35% premium deal. Finally, they touch on Databricks' $188B Series M, nuclear energy progress, and the strange inversion of private and public markets.